One More Go

And now for something totally different… In my last post I discussed a couple of upcoming video game releases that have caught my attention, but they’re far from the only thing that I’m excited about right now. In fact, what I’m most excited for is the upcoming Rugby World Cup.

The Rugby World Cup happens once every four years, and this September it is taking place in France. I know before each major sporting competition we see the same clichés bandied around, but this year I genuinely think the stage is set for one of the most exciting Rugby World Cups to date.

In it’s most basic form, Rugby Union (Rugby League is a similar, yet very different sport) is a game where two teams of fifteen players compete to take possession of an awkwardly shaped ball, and then try to outfox, outmuscle, and outscore the other team. There’s a lot more nuance to it than that, and even the most weathered fans would struggle to explain every law, exception, and decision that might crop up during a game. Adding to the confusion, the laws of rugby get an annual patch – buffs and nerfs to the ruleset that will encourage certain styles of play or try to mitigate some of the risks associated with playing a full contact sport. Understanding the game can be a fun challenge in itself, but when you can parse the visual language and the terminology used, that’s when the sport really comes alive.

Rugby is a busy sport, in every tackle, pass or kick there is always plenty to analyse, and any one of those actions performed well or poorly enough will pass the momentum to the opposing team. At a glance rugby can look a bit like trench warfare as two lines of players try to wrestle momentum from one another, one side with the ball trying to push past or break through the opposing defence, the other trying to prevent that at all costs, heaping pressure on the attacking team to force a mistake. The joy of rugby is that there’s no set way to accomplish either of those things, and each team will often have different playstyles depending on the skillsets of their personnel, or the perceived weaknesses in their opposition.

Those are the reasons why rugby is a fascinating and exciting sport all on it’s own, but there are a couple of extra wrinkles that are going to heighten the drama in France this September, starting with the much maligned draw.

The Rugby World Cup begins with twenty teams split into four pools of five. The makeup of those pools is decided by a draw that relies on the world rankings of the qualified teams at that time, distributing them evenly between the pools so that each pool will have one top tier team, one second tier team, one third tier team, etc. The controversy surrounding this World Cup, however, was that the draw happened three years ago. Since then the team’s standings have shifted significantly, meaning that the World Cup pools are entirely off balance.

The top 5 ranked teams (Ireland, South Africa, France, New Zealand, and Scotland) are all on the same side of the draw, so only two of those five will be able to reach a semi-final. On the opposite side of the draw, teams such as England, Wales, and Australia will have a much better chance of reaching the later stages of the tournament despite being much poorer teams over the past few years. As a Welsh fan I can hope that Wales will over achieve despite their poor run of form, but if I were a fan of Ireland or Scotland, I would be cursing the organisers for creating such a difficult path to the knockout stages. That being said, if either of those teams make it out of their pools and through the quarter finals, they’ll find themselves up against relatively easy opposition in a semi-final. With that in mind, it’ll be really interesting to see how different teams manage their players, with teams in pools A and B needing to be at their very best from the beginning of the tournament, while the teams in pools C and D will want to start peaking later as they hone in on the semi-finals.

Despite such a clear divide in the quality of teams on either side of the draw, the pools themselves have never been more competitive. Within every pool there are three teams that have a decent chance to make it through to the knockouts, meaning that one top flight team in each will be leaving the tournament early. In pool B Scotland pose a threat to both Ireland and South Africa, whereas only two of Wales, Fiji, and Australia will escape pool C. England will need to be wary of Argentina and Samoa if they’re going to advance from pool D, and Italy have impressed enough over recent years that they could cause an upset in pool A.

In fact, as teams have been playing their warm up matches in the summer series, the upsets have already begun. In just this last weekend of fixtures England lost to Fiji at home for the first time in their history, while South Africa produced a record score in their victory over New Zealand. Hopefully teams have learnt enough about themselves over the last few weeks that they can put their best foot forward in two weeks time, but they’ll also need to be mindful of the officials if they are going to proceed through the tournament unscathed.

In the modern game high tackles that involve and any kind of collision with the head will result in a player leaving the field, sometimes with a multi match ban. I hope the world cup won’t be decided by officiating decisions, but the reality is given the number of red cards we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks I’d be surprised if a few games aren’t impacted. The positive spin is that nothing heightens the drama of a match than a team with fewer players grinding out a heroic victory against the odds, at least that’s how the neutrals will see it. For the games to be at their competitive best I’ll be hoping that those instances are few and far between this autumn.

The World Cup starts on September 8th with France V New Zealand, two potential finalists, ranked 3rd and 4th in the world respectively, fighting to top pool A and secure a space in the knockouts. Expect a game full of spiraling kicks, brutal carries, and Dupont magic. It’ll be a game full of fireworks, a fitting curtain raiser for what I expect will be one of the most dramatic World Cups to date.